Could the top level of college football split in half and, if that does occur, what does it mean for service academies and their football programs?
The simple answer is yes and you can blame greed for what appears to be happening.
Schools in the four major Power Conferences (Southeast Conference, Big 10, Big 12 and the Atlantic Coast Conference, plus Notre Dame) are simply desperate to get and keep as much money as possible from their football activities to finance their overall sports programs.
NIL and what is essentially an era of free agency is not helping either. To compete these days, colleges need to spend big money on attracting and keeping the best players to their programs. Without some kind of congressional intervention, the cost of running a top-rated college football program is only going to skyrocket.
Steps are already being taken by the Power Four to build a protective wall around their programs. They include going to nine in-conference games and demanding that out-of-conference games be only against other Power Four conference schools. In addition, executives from the major conferences seem intent on limiting participation from other schools in the College Football Playoff, even as it expands to 16 and probably 24 teams in the near future.
That will most probably mean just one or two spots for schools outside the Power Four in the playoff in years to come, not a large number considering there are as many as 65 schools that make up the rest of Division I college football.
Where does that leave the rest of FBS football? The answer is searching for its own level of success where the schools can develop sustainable football programs without breaking the bank. Some schools, including a number of American Conference teams like Tulane, South Florida and Memphis, might seek a way to stay competitive with the Power Four programs and even seek to form a fifth Power Four conference and demand entrance into the lucrative world of big boy football.
Most will not and cannot. The money to compete is simply not there for many schools and, in the case of the three service academies, paying NIL money to players is simply against their own rules.
Most likely, a deal will be reached with the Power Four schools that allow for one game each season, per school, with the lower-level schools and the one spot or two spots in the playoff. It is also possible that the other schools decide to create their own playoff system, similar to what is offered at the FCS level, and compete for a national championship of their own.
Whatever happens will happen quickly because the schools are chomping at the bit in anticipation of more money flowing to their coffers. Army, Navy and Air Force have one advantage over many schools; they are national programs offering a national following.
But don’t be fooled by that. Everyone is looking out for themselves right now and anything could happen.
